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Now for today’s deep dive👇
I posted this to LinkedIn a few weeks ago…
It generated a ton of buzz and was definitely worth exploring further (took me a long time to put this all together, but was so worth it).
American Metros & Sports Teams
America has roughly 54 metropolitan areas with 1M+ people, yet none of its five biggest professional sports leagues has more than 32 teams.
And it’s even crazier because those 30-ish franchises aren’t occupying 30-ish unique markets.
NYC and LA have multiple teams in each league:
Meanwhile, the latest metro estimates put San Diego at ~3.3M, Orlando ~3.0M, San Antonio ~2.8M, Austin ~2.6M, and Portland ~2.5M, and they combined ONLY have eight Big Five teams.
Should there be more teams?
Yes…but the biggest constraint is league-imposed scarcity (not a lack of demand).
And that scarcity is a huge reason franchise values have exploded, but to continue the growth…expansion is going to become necessary.
How Many Teams Can These Leagues Support?
If we’re talking realistically supportable franchises, not “what will commissioners actually approve,” I think the number is substantially higher than 30.
I wouldn’t just take every major city and assume a U.S. league can work there…the sport’s popularity, travel, arenas/stadiums, media economics, currencies, taxes, and player willingness matter.
But if the question is…
“How many franchises could each of the Big Five plausibly support while still feeling like the same major league?”, here’s where I’d land:
So I think the U.S. could probably support ~180 Big Five franchises versus 142 today (without getting into ridiculous territory).
Once you include international markets, I think this gets much more interesting.
There are obviously huge caveats, especially around Europe, but here’s how I’d think about each.
🏈 NFL: 40–44 teams
The NFL is the most fascinating one to me because the league is basically telling us this is coming.
Roger Goodell said recently that he has “no doubt” there will eventually be NFL teams outside the U.S (and the 2026 season has a record nine international games across seven countries).
I’d see the eventual footprint roughly as:
There are enormous markets like São Paulo and Melbourne where demand could exist, but the geography makes it much harder.
Financially, the NFL could probably support the most expansion out of any league (it’s intentional at this point that they haven’t added any teams, as the demand is there).
On top of this:
The NFL's biggest competitor is really college football
International leagues don’t really exist, and the NFL has just recently started building player pipelines across the globe (ex. NFL Africa).
🏀 NBA: 42–48 teams
This is where I think the largest global opportunity exists.